Accident modelling, or dispersion modelling, is a method for estimating the dispersion and impact area of a chemical accident. It can be used to predict the dispersion of toxic gases, the pressure effects of an explosion or the extent of thermal radiation, for example.
Modelling is an essential part of chemical safety risk management. It is required as an annex to, for example, a chemical permit, an environmental permit or a SEVESO plant safety report. Authorities use modelling data to assess the impact of activities on people, the environment and neighbouring areas.
What does dispersion modelling involve?
Release modelling includes a calculated estimate of how a hazardous substance may be released and spread in the environment in the event of a chemical accident. The modelling typically covers:
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Definition of accident situations (e.g. tank leak, fire, explosion)
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Characteristics, quantity and release rate of the chemical to be released
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Weather conditions affecting dispersion (wind, temperature, air stability)
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Calculation of impact zones and estimation of exposure levels
The accuracy of the dispersion modelling depends, among other things, on the size of the facility, the hazardous nature of the chemicals and the location of the activity.
When does an organisation need accident modelling?
Accident and dispersion modelling is particularly relevant where activities are involved:
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Industrial installations where dangerous substances are handled or stored
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SEVESO installations subject to a major hazard obligation
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For permit applications, such as an environmental permit, a chemical permit or a safety report
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Siting of activities close to settlements, water bodies or other sensitive areas
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For projects where studies are carried out in connection with the EIA procedure
The modelling will ensure that operations are safe and that the safety distances and contingency measures required by the authorities are properly implemented.
Protect offers expert assistance in accident modelling as part of a comprehensive chemical safety service.
Contact us, and we will ensure that your modelling meets all requirements and supports a smooth permitting process.